@nonaware and RideTheWalrus

No, there is no real possibility that it could happen in a few years. Anyone who thinks that the US economy is not "recovering" is a fool. Hey look, I can make blanket statements with no evidence or support too!

Depending on how hard our economy crashes? How about let's cite some historical information. How about...the worst our economy has ever crashed? Even worse than those thousand point drops almost a year ago in the stock market?

Obviously I'm talking about the Great Depression. Let's look at some statistics. While I realize that the stock market is a fairly arbitrary method to describe how well the economy is faring, the correlation is nevertheless there.

Dow Jones in 1929 peaked at 381.17. A little more than half a year later, it closed at 41.22. Do you know what that means? That means a decline of around 89% in a span of around seven months. Let's look at the current stock market. It's at 10,642 as I'm writing this. The lowest it was at was around 6600 almost exactly a year ago. Now, do you know what that means? The decline wasn't even more than 50%. You can argue that it is a lot, and it is. But guess what? A year later, it has risen around 4000 points. How do you explain that? IS the economy not recovering? You be the judge.

Unemployment at the peak of the Great Depression was 25%. That's almost an universally accepted number, while some estimates have it even higher. What's today's current unemployment rate? According to the U.S. government, it's 11%.

Now, what is my point? My point is that even in the Great Depression, when things were literally twice as bad as things are right now, there was NO possibility of a civil war. You guys fail to realize how difficult it is to actually wage one. You mistakenly say that a politician or a general could use an army to try to take over the government. My question to you, is, what army?

Believe it or not, most people are actually patriotic. While they might not trust the government, they nevertheless believe in the system. You actually think that soldiers who have fought with their lives for the U.S. government would risk their lives, their families, friends, or whoever to fight a war that could only make things WORSE? Seriously?

It takes an enormous amount of power and resources to wage war.

And so no, I don't believe it's ever going to happen for a very long time.

DarkOptik... you and your fancy numbers and facts cant deny the truth... and that is... yeah its probaly not going to happen, but it is an intresting thought... why kill my fun with logic...

just pondering worst case...

you have to admit that it is a more realistic thread them nazi zombie invasion of the us

Cheap, artery-clogging food + reality TV + net/net gaming + lack of caring about current events vs. Bradjolina + lack of historical knowledge = a society that will never get off the couch or away from the computer

(Most likely flubbed the Brad Pitt/jolie thing, but I don't care =p)

The days of anything like that happening in this country are long over. Not because change isn't needed (a political system that survives by funding through 'donation' has no way of not becoming corrupt. If you don't get strong backing by some interest group, you'd never get the funds for advertizing to get into office, so before the candidate starts in office [not just the president, senate/congress as well] there are already items on the agenda for them that run contrary to the needs of the people) but because there is a lack of motivation when there is something 'better' to do with our time.

There may come a day when corporate America will screw us over far enough that the country will fall apart, but who knows.

I lol'd



________________
"“That's the difference between me and the rest of the world!
Happiness isn't good enough for me! I demand euphoria!” "

@DarkOptik
The stock market was above 13,000 at one point, right before it crashed down to the 6600 level. So was our economy healthy when the DOW reached 13000? Of course it wasn't, the 13000 figure was a false indicator of economic health, as is our present 10642 number. If you're relying on the DOW as your measure of our economy you're only fooling yourself.

Take a look around you. Our biggest creditors are getting out of the dollar, the price of gold is up, our government is spending like drunken sailors, and we are still losing jobs.

The 'recovery' as you call it is a measure of increased spending based on borrowed money. Money we will have to pay back and your comparison to the great depression is wrong on several counts.

First, you're comparing the drop from 13000 to 6600 to the great depression numbers - and missing the point. I'm not saying the crash has already happened, the real crash has yet to happen. So the numbers you are comparing to the great depression are irrelevant.

You claim that most people are patriotic and believe in the system. That's your opinion, and personally I disagree. I think most people don't believe in the US anymore and think our system is corrupt and in desperate need of change. I was born and raised in the United States and I sure as hell don't believe in the system, and certainly not my corrupt government.

...and there are several key differences between the great depression and now. People have never been so dependent before. Take hurricane Katrina for example. Normal Americans turned to crime, looting, murder, and rape when the system broke down for a relatively short amount of time.

Compare that to the times of the great depression where farming was more local and many homes did not even have electricity. During the times of the great depression people were far more independent then we are now.

Final point, I did not say that we're heading to civil war, but I do see it as a real possibility.

If it would happen, I think the trigger would be desperate people clashing with an over-taxing, freedom trampling government.

Countries that have civil war or having a civil war right now are usually country that has an unstable “Central” government with little power over its people, major culture and/or religious difference between two or more factions within a country. These Counties are usually was once rule, influence , and /or control by some foreign countries before they became independent.

“If” the economy really turns for the worst “worst case scenario” People might rebel, cause destruction but not a civil war.

There's no severe conflict between different factions and I don't forsee there being any for quite awhile. It's so unlikely that there will be a another civil war in America in the next several hundred years (but who knows since things can change). Definately not in the next 10-50 years.



Even if the economy turned, there would never be a rebellion because hardly anyone wants to install a dictator, they would rather maintain a republic. People would just vote everyone out of office which is totally legal way to reach the goal of a rebellion. And if we made it through the Great Depression without any civil unrest, I think we're solid especially with the depolorization of the two major political parties.

Last edited by xxxillusionxxx at 6:40 pm, Mar 15 2010

Whether or not the economy is the recovering isn't even the point. Which is why I said that you're supposed to judge that yourself. The numbers aren't irrelevant at all: they show that despite our country going through an economic crisis FAR WORSE than the current situation, there was absolutely no sign of this so-called "rebellion" which you see as a possibility.

You seem to have completely disregarded my point that the economy is not going to be the instigator of such a rebellion.

What you've pointed out in Hurricane Katrina has nothing to do with the economy at all. The system broke down due to extremely late assistance by the national government, as well as civil unrest brought on by a massive tragedy. Explain how any of that has to do with a faltered economy. What's more, Katrina struck the South, which is factually speaking one of the lesser parts of the United States in terms of standard of living. It is not a complete stereotype when people say the South is sometimes backward in what it does. I'm not going to go into the specifics of why as much as just point out that it is.

My question to you is this: where on earth do you see this civil unrest COMING from in the first place? You cite over-taxed, and I call utter bullshit on that. Do you even realize why we're in such a massive deficit right now? It's because we haven't been taxed at a necessary rate for our spending for YEARS. It's precisely because of cutting tax rates by the Republicans that we first began to get into this mess, while at the same time spending more and more money on programs. Do you realize what kind of tax rates they have in Europe compared to us? Do you see the entirety of Europe burning buildings and overthrowing their government?

Freedom trampling my ass. Where do you see that? Have any of your rights been impinged on? I would say with a lot of certainty that none of them have.

And the last thing, do you even KNOW what a civil war IS? What you just described and I've been countering the whole time is civil unrest, riots, revolt or revolution. You can't have a civil war without factions, like aznluck mentioned.

I highly doubt America will ever see another civil war.

However, I'm fairly sure we will see World War 3 in the next 10-20 years.

You're still missing the point. For a real comparison you would need to compare numbers *during* the crash to numbers of the great depression. Comparing numbers before the crash is besides the point entirely. The real crash hasn't happened yet.



What Katrina showed us was how quickly law and order can descend into chaos when the system breaks down - and it also showed how dependent people are on that system to survive.

This has a lot to do with a crashing economy, because in a worst case scenario a crashing economy can cause a breakdown of law and order as well. When truly large numbers of people find themselves on the streets, without work, you're faced with a great deal of anger and violence.

Do you know how the Soviet Union crashed? They were a superpower, they crashed from the inside.

Bad economic crashes have started revolutions, they have changed governments. To say that it can't happen here is to ignore history.



Nice generalization. They acted the way they did because they were backwards and from the south. Right. Couldn't happen up there, eh?



The reason we're in a deficit is because we've been overspending. If we didn't spend so much in the first place we shouldn't need to have such high levels of taxation.

I am not a republican, I will be the first to tell you that republicans are idiots. What the republicans did was decrease taxes while increasing government borrowing and spending. That will certainly create a deficit. How can you increase spending while decreasing funding? You have to borrow.

What they did not do, but should have done was decrease taxes while decreasing government spending.

Tax cuts are very healthy for the economy.



Again, I'm not telling you that a civil war is going to happen, only that I don't discount the possibility. It could happen.

The only thing I am claiming is that the economy is going to crash hard.



If you read between the lines you will find that most places in Europe have lower tax rates than we do.

Also, Europe, by large, reaps more of the benefits of their taxes then we do. Only a fraction of what we are taxed here in the United States goes to the benefit of the people.

If you look at what I said in the context of this thread (civil war), you'll realize I wasn't claiming that taxes by itself would make people rise up. If people did rise up it would happen when they're in an economic crash, combined with high taxes.



You're right, our government would never trample on our freedoms. Well, except for that time when they started sterilizing people against their will and refused to allow epileptic people to marry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugenics

Or maybe when they enacted the patriot act? Animal ID premises ID? HR 875? Prohibition?

How about that time they drafted up plans for a false-flag terror attack on our own people?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods

Our government is far from clean - and in a real economic crash they'll trample all over your freedoms, especially in the case of an 'emergency' where they're trying to maintain order.



Do you?

A civil war is a war between organized groups within a single nation state
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war

A revolution can be organized, as would be the government trying to stomp it out. Alternatively a civil war could arise after order and government breaks down, as different political organizations attempt to form a new stable government.

Last edited by RideTheWalrus at 10:35 pm, Mar 15 2010

Ride the Walrus,

I see the point your making, but I wonder what you think would bring about the destabilization of our government to the point in which warfare would be something that could possibly occur? In order for any two groups or organizations to go to war within the United States, our military and police force would have to be nonexistent. As long as we have some form of central governing body in this country capable of producing some kind of law enforcement agency, I dont see how any kind of mass conflict could even begin.

However if we are imagining some kind of scenario in which the government just implodes upon itself, its the corporations that would hold all the power and the entire population would become subservient to the largest corporations which can afford security for itself and its employees. Either way, I dont see any sort of civil war taking place, the people in this country are powerless to do anything other than vote and even if the government were to disappear some type of system would immediately take its place.

@RideTheWalrus

So your entire point about the current economy is that it's going to go through a cycle worse than even the Great Depression. Right. Feel free to believe that.

As for your comment that that a breakdown in the economy can lead to a breakdown of law and order...uh...no? Again, did you see that happening in the Great Depression? No. You seem to operate on the understanding that the central government wields no power over the people, which I think is a disturbingly bad assumption to make. You actually think the common person has any power to overthrow the national entity? No.

And actually, yes. That is what I'm saying about the South. You realize that the South is populated by some of the least educated, low level of standard of living states in the entire U.S. right? Obviously there's going to be a more degeneration in that case than if Katrina had hit the Northeast. Believe it or not, the South is not actually representative of the entire United States. Unbelievable right?

You're being so presumptious with the "unemployment" factor. In the Great Depression 25% of the workforce was unemployed, as large of a mass as you can get, and there was nothing even close to a revolution.

I don't even know what your point is about overspending and whatnot. That is exactly what I said. I said that we kept spending more money on programs while at the same time giving tax cuts. Obviously one can infer from that we're overspending. The very definition of overspending is an excess of spending compared to the influx of income. I just pointed out a reason of WHY our income was being lowered.

What? You tell me to read between the lines, and then proceed to say Europe gets taxed more. Make up your damn mind.

Obviously no government is clean. I don't think that in the slightest, and I don't expect you to. But you fail to realize that with all the SHIT our government has done, your rights haven't been infringed on in a notable way. What, is the government using the Patriot Act to intercept your phone calls to your girlfriend? Maybe, but why does that matter? Breach of privacy? Fuck, technically the phone companies are at fault too then, because they can listen on every single one of your phone calls if they like. And Google! Damn them, they could read all your emails. Microsoft too! Oh bloody hell, the internet companies can monitor what you're looking up on the web!

Eugenics? That's an issue I don't want to go in because that's really something else all together.

And actually, that Civil War link you cited goes along with what I was saying, until you magically decided to change your stance.

"desperate people clashing with an over-taxing, freedom trampling government"

Okay, I was supposed to infer that instead of riotry and chaos and anarchy I was supposed to think that you meant an organized group rebelling against the government. Thanks.

Not.

And you know what's even more ridiculous? What you were first arguing:
"There's a real possibility that it could happen in a few years depending on how hard our economy crashes. "

And this is what you're saying now:
"The only thing I am claiming is that the economy is going to crash hard."

No, that is not the only thing you're claiming. Your entire argument then, is hinging on one idea.

That our economy is going to implode into a state even worse than the Great Depression in 1929, and that it would cause such anarchy that our central government would be unable to control and therefore would manifest into an organized revolution that would eventually try to overthrow the government...so that we would be taxed less and have more freedom.

Wait WHAT? I can't believe you actually think that's possible IN THE SLIGHTEST. Either way, I'm done arguing with you, because there's nothing more I have left to say to anyone who holds such a belief.

hopefully soon, no reason for 2 major opposing value systems to continue the false act of unity

________________
"Let's put a smile on that face."

this will not happen unless the system fails hard core and major trust lost. something that won't happen anytime soon. you'll need something like in v for vendeta movie

Last edited by HontouRakuda at 1:17 pm, Mar 16 2010

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本当のラクダ

"The point is that good deeds were done and we were nearby" - the idiotic Red Mage

I think a revolution would be more likely to happen first.

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